Geopolitics clouds a currently robust buy sell market’s future

The dealership buy sell market is unlikely to suffer much in the near term due to the current geopolitical turmoil, analysts say. Dealers, and buy sell clients, are worried about the future, however.

“There may be some challenges, but as a general term, I suspect the whole dynamic around buy sell and M&A is going to remain pretty robust,” Mike Wall, executive director, automotive analysis at Mobility Global, Inc., tells Getting to Go.

The seemingly sanguine attitude many dealers have towards the current environment, which includes a potential delayed tariff impact and and still-high gas prices from the Middle East turmoil, is likely due to continued strong consumer demand for vehicles.

The automotive market including retail and fleet sales is slowing, according to Global Mobility, Inc. (the former S&P Global Mobility). For 2026, it forecasts total light vehicle retail sales of 15.7 million units, down four percent compared to 2025.

The forecast reflects the ongoing Iran situation and the influences of inflation, oil and gas prices, and other factors, Wall says.

“I would also add that while there is certainly the potential for downside risk in a scenario where the Middle East conflict reignites and oil prices spike, I do think that is less likely at this point,” he adds.

Consumer demand outlook cloudy

“In general, there is reason to believe the (auto) industry is healthy,” says Tom Libby, director, loyalty solutions and industry analysis at S&P Global Mobility.

Despite the rise in gas prices and ongoing affordability concerns, the data indicates the geopolitical uncertainty isn’t currently having a big impact on the consumer demand for vehicles, Libby says. That could change in the next few months, however.

Based on historical data, two things must occur to change consumer behavior, Libby says: “One, gas prices have to go way up and two they have to stay up there for five or six months before there will be any change in consumer behavior.”

While gas prices have dropped, they are still “significantly elevated” compared to 2025, according to AAA.

And at least in early July, the share of consumers calling jobs hard to get “jumped to 22.5%, a level not seen since early 2021,” Cox Automotive says in its Auto Market Weekly Summary for July 6.

Dealers are worried about the uncertain future, and the political climate is one reason. The Q2 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index, released in late May, found that while dealer sentiment rose in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2026, “the future outlook weakens sharply,” Cox says.

Expectations for the next three months fell into negative territory from somewhat positive in the first quarter, and while that was seasonally normal, “it also reflects increasing concern about inflation, economic conditions and softening consumer demand,” Cox says.

Among factors cited as holding back business in the second quarter, Political Climate rose to number three from number five the previous quarter, “with concern rising notably in Q2 as dealers point to geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty weighing on dealer confidence,” Cox says. Economy and Market Conditions ranked first and second respectively in the second quarter.

At Kerrigan Advisors, dealership buyers are worried about the future. While the Iran war, a real-time geopolitical risk, comes up in general conversation, “we aren’t hearing anyone talk about it from a buy sell perspective,” Erin Kerrigan, managing director of Kerrigan Advisors, says.

What are they worried about? Dealers “see China’s growing dominance globally as something that is going to have a major impact on the financial wherewithal of the major OEMs,” Kerrigan says.

“We are having sellers mention the Chinese risk factor to the global auto industry more often when they are discussing their reason for selling,” she says. Indeed, a recent client told Kerrigan it was one of his main reasons for selling.

Wall agrees. “I suspect the bear that is going to impact (mergers and acquisitions) is China,” he says.